The Long Emergency. Thanks to Russ for the link, and to Alan Farhi for the lunch conversation about this very article two weeks ago. Kunstler tells a plausible doomsday scenario by asking the simple question: what happens if the world’s petroleum infrastructure ceases to exist? Every excess we know today in America — from Starbucks to air travel to the Internet — depends on the vast electric product of petrol reserves which, by many counts, may continue to follow this trend:
The fundamental shift is not a bubble generated by speculation, but that of a systematic upward shift in the long-term price of oil.
The source? Why, that crazy, left-wing propaganda machine known as…er, Goldman Sachs (via CNN). Wired had a feature last month about China’s growing thirst for oil. I wonder if Kunstler hasn’t hit the nail on the head with this article. If nothing else, he’s certainly riding the wave of media madness over energy prices with his latest book. My only question is: is this really a bad thing?
I mean, sure, the collapse of everything we know and hold dear relative to suburban values and multinational corporations would be a drastic transformation of our culture. And, it breaks my heart to think about the decay of our largest cities (which are unsustainable without huge energy reserves). I’m just wondering if a return to simpler lifestyles would at all be a bad thing.
For more reading: I thought Tom G.’s comments were interesting, Fortune seems to be approaching the subject with a level head, and can we get an XML feed for these numbers? Oh, and Newark, NJ has the cheapest gas prices in the nation these days, though public transportation to my new job is pretty decent.
8 Comments
I think that oil is this huge bank account that were sucking down at an equally tremendous rate. Our children will have to get used to the idea of “limited resources”, something that our generation of Americans never really knew. Oil lubricates a wild and reckless way of life and when that resource dwindles, like the giant palm trees on Easter Island…
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C02E1DA1038F933A05752C0A9639C8B63
Would you drive your car if it cost you $5 a mile? Would you heat your entire house all winter if it cost more than your rent?
I was reading this a couple weeks back. It’s pretty much become my #1 fear. I haven’t yet found a solution that I think will be implemented.
We clearly need to switch to nuclear power asap. I support a tax on gas in order to do it (potentially capped for industrial use, so walmart doesnt die, etc.) - This will reduce our reliance on oil for non-transportation uses. We need to find substitutes for products based on oil. Not sure where to start on that. And we need to get people on hybrids, and work on our public transportation systems. Sprawl is stupid.
Personally, I use wind power for my electricity at home (and everything i do at home is electric). I still drive a normal car, though reasonably good mileage is nice. My next care will likely be a hybrid mini cooper. They don’t exist yet, but i’m betting that they will by the time i buy my next car.
I’ve actually been so disturbed by this that I’ve considered gun ownership. Living in Texas, things could get ugly fast, and I want a reasonable chance at getting out of here and back to my family, even if i have to walk the whole damn way.
THe problem with nuke plants is that people are scared of them. The only way they will get built is if they are mandated by the government, and the president that does that is only seeing 1 term in office, and probably a couple assisination attempts by either big oil/coal companies or the enviornmental asshats stabbing him to death with their “remember chernobyl” signs. And what do you do with all the nuclear waste?
I don’t think this country is ready to move on. I don’t think this country cares at all about the future, or if they do the masses are too ignorant to see past their own closed/short-sighted minds.
Now, i’m not disagreeing with you at all. I think nuke power is the way to go as well, I just don’t think we will see it happen.
As far as hybrid cars, they are starting to catch on but they are still not there yet. With that said my next car will probably be a toyota hybrid. Right now i’m lucky to get 15 or 16 miles to the gallon in my truck, 50 to 60 will be a nice change. But, at the same time i can’t get rid of my truck, I use it to haul stuff several times a month … nor can i afford to replace it with a hybrid (if such a beast exists), which is a problem in in my part of the country that has many trucks and SUVs that are used for hauling. We have people here buying “New” 1985 models … the economy around here doesn’t lend itself to hybrid cars, and won’t until you can buy them for about $1000 (the price of a good mid-80’s car right now). So just hurrying the nation along to hybrids isn’t going to help if people hold onto their older cars, which they will.
Russ, I don’t think you have to reach back very far to get to a “limited resources” generation here in America. The World Wars were a scarce time to live in, let alone the Great Depression. I suspect that a slow-down of petrol production won’t result in mass chaos in the US–just a return to a less-wild, less-reckless way of living. I may be an eternal optimist, though.
Ryan, IIRC, I think you were talking about gun ownership in the face of Y2K, as well.
I agree that sprawl is a dumb idea, and it’s a curious thing to consider how we got like this. Harper’s had a great article this month about how, earlier in the century, the US government was designing intelligent, community-oriented living spaces. This is before the HUD became obsessed with modernity and categorizing residential living space as totally separate from commercial space. See also, Superbia on designing sustainable neighborhoods.
Ken,
I was definately thinking about gun ownership during Y2K. It’s what I think about when I see a serious threat. Y2K was a serious threat that was handled due to a mega-billion dollar push across industries to fix it. It could’ve been really bad. Since it was fixed, and nothing very eventful happened, people figured it was never bad in the first place and made fun of it. But it WAS bad. We fixed it.
I’ve yet to figure out a way we can “fix” oil becoming a luxury item. The ideas I outlined above could help in the short term.. but they don’t solve the problem of total airline and automobile shutdown. That said, I’m hopeful that they buy us enough time in order to solve them. If not, it will be bad. Either way, it will be big change… and people do some very strange things in order to avoid changing.
Alternative power now!
Electro-magnetic hi-speed bullet trains are needed like Europe and Japan have….also, the same for cars (electric). Obviously Planes are a different story (rubber-band powered?!?) but there’s only so much oil to be had. Plus it causes too many problems (see Middle-East).
Dump your Halliburton stock.
Ken,
Nice post.
I think that Kunstler’s point is that we, as a society, need to figure out ways, not to replace oil, and live the way we have been living but, rather, to create sustainable communities that are well-designed where we can live non automobile-dependent lives.
His wonderful book, Home From Nowhere, makes the argument that America has become a poorly designed automobile slum and that small towns — even big pedestrian-friendly cities — are more humane places to live than the non-places we call suburbs.
Peace,
Alan
Alan!
I’ve been trying to reach you and the email address I have for you no longer works.
I will be in Bethpage, New York (Long Island, apparently) on May 26 and 27. If you and Ellen and the kids are free on the evening of the 26th, I would love to buy you dinner.
Reach me at allison_moule@yahoo.com .
Apologies to the owner of the blog for using your space for my own business.
Allison